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V-Lab

Bayer AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

40.02%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

39.91%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Month

39.47%

decreased by 1.28%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:59 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Bayer AG GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.0444
3.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0564
32.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9921
475.83***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.9909
8.83***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

87 days