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V-Lab

XtalPi Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

73.87%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

73.87%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

73.87%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

All

graph of XtalPi Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 9, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 43.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-lifev = 43.41 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst21.6535
0.76
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.7634
0.02
νDF43.4088
0.01

0.763

Persistence

3d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

21.6535
0.76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7634
0.02
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

43.4088
0.01

Persistence:

0.763

Half-life:

3 days