XtalPi Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
72.08%
decreased by 4.26%
1 Week
75.16%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Month
76.42%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 87.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-lifev = 87.04 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 23.5097 | 6.29*** |
| αscore | 0.1457 | 0.44 |
| βpersistence | 0.4517 | 0.86 |
| νDF | 87.0446 | 0.01 |
0.452
Persistence1d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 23.5097 | 6.29*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1457 | 0.44 |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.4517 | 0.86 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 87.0446 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.452
Half-life:
1 days
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