V-Lab
XtalPi Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
75.87%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Week
75.99%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
76.03%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 200.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 22.9447 | 22.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0430 | 0.24 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2585 | 0.30 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 200.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.259
Half-life:
1 days
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