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V-Lab
V-Lab

XtalPi Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

70.49%

increased by 4.07%

1 Week

72.82%

increased by 6.40%

1 Month

73.77%

increased by 7.35%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of XtalPi Holdings Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 9, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 65.51 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-lifev = 65.51 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst21.7687
5.50***
αARCH0.1494
0.40
βGARCH0.4449
0.87
νDF65.5050
0.01

0.445

Persistence

1d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

21.7687
5.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1494
0.40
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4449
0.87
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

65.5050
0.01

Persistence:

0.445

Half-life:

1 days