V-Lab
Cargills Ceylon PLC GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
218.20%
increased by 8.03%
1 Week
224.16%
increased by 13.99%
1 Month
246.27%
increased by 36.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2,861.8260 | 7.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0980 | 117.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9980 | 4,024.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0050 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
353 days
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