V-Lab
Cargills Ceylon PLC AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
20.97%
increased by 0.38%
1 Week
22.40%
increased by 1.81%
1 Month
26.68%
increased by 6.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.66) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1211 | 6.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1201 | 34.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8532 | 203.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.6616 | -5.77*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
26 days
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