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V-Lab

Cargills Ceylon PLC AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

20.97%

increased by 0.38%

1 Week

22.40%

increased by 1.81%

1 Month

26.68%

increased by 6.09%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cargills Ceylon PLC AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 31, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.66) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1211
6.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1201
34.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8532
203.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.6616
-5.77***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

26 days