V-Lab
Cargills Ceylon PLC GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
21.18%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
21.47%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
22.52%
increased by 1.21%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0405 | 10.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0411 | 8.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9521 | 348.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0041 | -0.62 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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