V-Lab
Cargills Ceylon PLC GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
26.51%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
26.67%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Month
27.23%
increased by 0.38%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0416 | 10.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0410 | 8.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9519 | 347.16*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0039 | -0.58 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
76 days
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