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V-Lab

Cargills Ceylon PLC GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

26.51%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

26.67%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Month

27.23%

increased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Cargills Ceylon PLC GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 31, 1994 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 76 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0416
10.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0410
8.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9519
347.16***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0039
-0.58

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

76 days