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V-Lab

Cargills Ceylon PLC APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

21.22%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

21.52%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

22.61%

increased by 1.26%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cargills Ceylon PLC APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 31, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0392
11.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0399
12.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9524
420.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0286
-0.99
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9522
22.32***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days