V-Lab
Cargills Ceylon PLC APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
21.22%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
21.52%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
22.61%
increased by 1.26%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0392 | 11.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0399 | 12.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9524 | 420.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0286 | -0.99 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9522 | 22.32*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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