V-Lab
Cargills Ceylon PLC EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
23.37%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
23.90%
increased by 0.57%
1 Month
26.07%
increased by 2.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 31% more than negative returns
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0282 | 12.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0866 | 20.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 1,315.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0115 | 2.45** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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