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V-Lab

Cargills Ceylon PLC EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

23.37%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

23.90%

increased by 0.57%

1 Month

26.07%

increased by 2.74%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:12 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cargills Ceylon PLC EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 31, 1994 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 31% more than negative returns

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0282
12.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0866
20.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9922
1,315.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0115
2.45**

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

88 days