V-Lab
Nice ONE Beauty Digital Mark EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026
1 Day
29.38%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
29.26%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Month
28.83%
decreased by 0.89%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2025 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 82 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~82 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0063 | 0.05 |
| αARCH | 0.0185 | 0.71 |
| βGARCH | 0.9916 | 26.66*** |
| γleverage | -0.0410 | -1.09 |
0.992
Persistence82d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0063 | 0.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0185 | 0.71 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9916 | 26.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0410 | -1.09 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
82 days
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