V-Lab
GCM Corp Ltd EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
139.35%
increased by 4.39%
1 Week
140.19%
increased by 5.23%
1 Month
143.50%
increased by 8.54%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 15, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 131 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
EGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~131 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0290 | 0.45 |
| αARCH | 0.0440 | 2.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9947 | 87.90*** |
| γleverage | -0.0388 | -1.77* |
0.995
Persistence131d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0290 | 0.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0440 | 2.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9947 | 87.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0388 | -1.77* |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
131 days
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