V-Lab
Casa Emtia Petrol Kimyevi Ve EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
65.47%
increased by 17.41%
1 Week
66.03%
increased by 17.97%
1 Month
66.44%
increased by 18.38%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:52 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 25, 2012 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 42% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0346 | 9.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4064 | 31.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6392 | 16.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0705 | 6.88*** |
Persistence:
0.639
Half-life:
2 days
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