V-Lab
Casa Emtia Petrol Kimyevi Ve Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
40.81%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
46.59%
increased by 5.71%
1 Month
52.45%
increased by 11.57%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 25, 2012 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6805 | 4.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2822 | 7.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4833 | 8.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.4389 | 3.43*** |
| γ2 | -0.5706 | -2.81*** |
| γ3 | 0.1923 | 0.99 |
| γ4 | -0.1786 | -0.68 |
| γ5 | 0.1884 | 0.74 |
| γ6 | -0.0670 | -0.49 |
Persistence:
0.766
Half-life:
3 days
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