V-Lab
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
26.31%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
26.88%
increased by 0.88%
1 Month
28.74%
increased by 2.74%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0362 | 4.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0646 | 7.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9105 | 83.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0017 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0839 | 1.33 |
| γ3 | -0.2120 | -5.47*** |
| γ4 | 0.2396 | 5.71*** |
| γ5 | -0.1592 | -3.37*** |
| γ6 | 0.0341 | 0.77 |
| γ7 | 0.0566 | 1.32 |
| γ8 | -0.0525 | -1.13 |
| γ9 | 0.0034 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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