Bayerische Motoren Werke AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
33.94%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
34.10%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Month
34.65%
decreased by 0.34%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0352 | 4.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0643 | 7.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9115 | 84.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0028 | -0.06 |
| γ2 | 0.0863 | 1.35 |
| γ3 | -0.2144 | -5.41*** |
| γ4 | 0.2402 | 5.56*** |
| γ5 | -0.1563 | -3.23*** |
| γ6 | 0.0294 | 0.65 |
| γ7 | 0.0587 | 1.33 |
| γ8 | -0.0494 | -1.04 |
| γ9 | -0.0015 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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