V-Lab
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
32.54%
increased by 5.08%
1 Week
32.76%
increased by 5.30%
1 Month
33.52%
increased by 6.06%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 28 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0302 | 4.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.0645 | 7.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9108 | 83.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0017 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0828 | 1.31 |
| γ3 | -0.2105 | -5.47*** |
| γ4 | 0.2400 | 5.78*** |
| γ5 | -0.1622 | -3.48*** |
| γ6 | 0.0386 | 0.88 |
| γ7 | 0.0524 | 1.24 |
| γ8 | -0.0490 | -1.08 |
| γ9 | 0.0009 | 0.02 |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0302 | 4.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0645 | 7.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9108 | 83.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0017 | -0.04 |
| γ2 | 0.0828 | 1.31 |
| γ3 | -0.2105 | -5.47*** |
| γ4 | 0.2400 | 5.78*** |
| γ5 | -0.1622 | -3.48*** |
| γ6 | 0.0386 | 0.88 |
| γ7 | 0.0524 | 1.24 |
| γ8 | -0.0490 | -1.08 |
| γ9 | 0.0009 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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