Skip to main content
V-Lab

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

37.16%

decreased by 1.01%

1 Week

37.08%

decreased by 1.09%

1 Month

36.78%

decreased by 1.39%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bayerische Motoren Werke AG GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 166% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0331
14.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0281
16.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9403
607.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0468
11.74***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

84 days