Bayerische Motoren Werke AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
37.16%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Week
37.08%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Month
36.78%
decreased by 1.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 166% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0331 | 14.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0281 | 16.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9403 | 607.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0468 | 11.74*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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