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V-Lab

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

24.79%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

24.93%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

25.42%

increased by 0.43%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bayerische Motoren Werke AG GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 161% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0341
15.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0290
17.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9391
598.50***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0468
11.59***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days