Bayerische Motoren Werke AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
32.84%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Week
32.99%
decreased by 1.24%
1 Month
33.84%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 173% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0420 | 15.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8286 | 89.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0728 | 15.54*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0166 | 3.70*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0357 | 4.09*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9598 | 98.63*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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