V-Lab
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
26.50%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
27.14%
increased by 0.51%
1 Month
28.24%
increased by 1.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 175% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 41 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0418 | 15.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8294 | 90.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0730 | 15.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0166 | 3.76*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0349 | 4.12*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9605 | 101.31*** |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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