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V-Lab

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

34.84%

increased by 9.71%

1 Week

34.18%

increased by 9.05%

1 Month

32.81%

increased by 7.68%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bayerische Motoren Werke AG MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 174% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 174% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.0419
3.84***
βGARCH0.8285
34.93***
γleverage0.0730
4.16***
λ₁tau intercept0.0164
2.21**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0349
3.38***
λ₃tau persistence0.9606
81.33***

0.907

Persistence

7d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0419
3.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8285
34.93***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0730
4.16***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0164
2.21**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0349
3.38***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9606
81.33***

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days