V-Lab
Inner Mongolia Shuangxin Environment-Friendly Material Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4.25%
1 Week
1,850.88%
1 Month
764,389,795,850,258.50%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1289 | 1.75* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9305 | 15.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1289 | -2.10** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0031 | 0.05 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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