Inner Mongolia Shuangxin Environment-Friendly Material Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
24.29%
1 Week
76,049.43%
1 Month
87,178,885,058,252,490,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0801 | 4.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9600 | 795.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0801 | -5.88*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4615 | 6.26*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0001 | 0.39 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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