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V-Lab

Inner Mongolia Shuangxin Environment-Friendly Material Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

24.29%

increased by 2.03%

1 Week

76,049.43%

increased by 76,027.17%

1 Month

87,178,885,058,252,490,000.00%

increased by 87,178,885,058,252,490,000.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Inner Mongolia Shuangxin Environment-Friendly Material Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 30, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0801
4.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9600
795.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0801
-5.88***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4615
6.26***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0001
0.39

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days