Inner Mongolia Shuangxin Environment-Friendly Material Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
57.25%
increased by 23.82%
1 Week
59.69%
increased by 26.26%
1 Month
68.25%
increased by 34.82%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 107.5373 | 3.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3860 | 9.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9940 | 556.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3475 | 2.13** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
115 days
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