V-Lab
Inner Mongolia Shuangxin Environment-Friendly Material Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
47.95%
1 Week
52.80%
1 Month
63.05%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 06:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 30, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.55 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 0.38 |
| αARCH | 0.3907 | 3.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5669 | 4.96*** |
| γleverage | 0.0576 | 0.53 |
| δpower | 1.5512 | 0.76 |
0.908
Persistence7d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.38 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3907 | 3.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5669 | 4.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0576 | 0.53 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5512 | 0.76 |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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