V-Lab
Arlitech Electronic Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
59.35%
1 Week
57.67%
1 Month
53.16%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 02:37 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 2014 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 36% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 1.83 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4812 | 12.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3032 | 41.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6419 | 73.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0838 | -9.16*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8328 | 24.21*** |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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