Taisei Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
50.37%
increased by 5.93%
1 Week
46.27%
increased by 1.83%
1 Month
36.11%
decreased by 8.33%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 30, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. The volatility power δ = 0.78 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0658 | 18.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2249 | 74.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7593 | 224.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0264 | 4.24*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7818 | 16.51*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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