Taisei Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
32.64%
1 Week
30.77%
1 Month
25.98%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 30, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. The volatility power δ = 0.78 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0656 | 4.52*** |
| αARCH | 0.2244 | 18.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7596 | 56.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.0266 | 1.07 |
| δpower | 0.7774 | 4.11*** |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0656 | 4.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2244 | 18.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7596 | 56.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0266 | 1.07 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7774 | 4.11*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on International Equities