V-Lab
Taisei Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
40.57%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Week
42.98%
increased by 0.99%
1 Month
46.61%
increased by 4.62%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 115% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 106 | |
| αARCH | 0.0880 | 5.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7051 | 24.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.1016 | 3.60*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2580 | 1.62 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2325 | 1.84* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7204 | 4.78*** |
0.844
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0880 | 5.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7051 | 24.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1016 | 3.60*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2580 | 1.62 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2325 | 1.84* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7204 | 4.78*** |
Persistence:
0.844
Half-life:
4 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on International Equities