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V-Lab
V-Lab

Taisei Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 22nd, 2026

1 Day

38.96%

decreased by 2.19%

1 Week

40.64%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Month

43.65%

increased by 2.50%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/21/2024

to

10/21/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taisei Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 115% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow106
αARCH0.0880
5.83***
βGARCH0.7061
25.05***
γleverage0.1012
3.59***
λ₁tau intercept0.2566
1.62
λ₂forecast adj.0.2286
1.83*
λ₃tau persistence0.7242
4.86***

0.845

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0880
5.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7061
25.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1012
3.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2566
1.62
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2286
1.83*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7242
4.86***

Persistence:

0.845

Half-life:

4 days