V-Lab
Taisei Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
44.37%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Week
46.37%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
49.91%
increased by 3.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 119% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0875 | 24.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7035 | 91.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1038 | 15.56*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2630 | 1.86* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2433 | 2.05** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7096 | 4.83*** |
Persistence:
0.843
Half-life:
4 days
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