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V-Lab
V-Lab

Taisei Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

40.57%

decreased by 1.42%

1 Week

42.98%

increased by 0.99%

1 Month

46.61%

increased by 4.62%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 11:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taisei Corp MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 115% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 115% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow106
αARCH0.0880
5.83***
βGARCH0.7051
24.90***
γleverage0.1016
3.60***
λ₁tau intercept0.2580
1.62
λ₂forecast adj.0.2325
1.84*
λ₃tau persistence0.7204
4.78***

0.844

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

106
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0880
5.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7051
24.90***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1016
3.60***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2580
1.62
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2325
1.84*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7204
4.78***

Persistence:

0.844

Half-life:

4 days