V-Lab
Range International Limited MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
180.71%
increased by 21.65%
1 Week
196.31%
increased by 37.25%
1 Month
276.20%
increased by 117.14%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 22, 2016 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.1618 | 3.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7454 | 16.29*** |
| γleverage | -0.0275 | -0.41 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.48 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3314 | 1.05 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5494 | 1.01 |
0.893
Persistence6d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1618 | 3.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7454 | 16.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0275 | -0.41 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.48 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3314 | 1.05 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5494 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.893
Half-life:
6 days
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