V-Lab
Gujarat Energy Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
36.18%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
37.96%
increased by 1.67%
1 Month
39.39%
increased by 3.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 195% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0343 | 3.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6032 | 12.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0668 | 5.06*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.1277 | 0.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5806 | 0.08 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1595 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.671
Half-life:
2 days
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