V-Lab
Gujarat Energy Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
34.91%
increased by 0.75%
1 Week
35.94%
increased by 1.78%
1 Month
35.46%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 191% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 191% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0351 | 1.41 |
| βGARCH | 0.6043 | 4.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.0670 | 1.97** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.0884 | 1.32 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5332 | 1.34 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.2116 | 0.38 |
0.673
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0351 | 1.41 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6043 | 4.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0670 | 1.97** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.0884 | 1.32 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5332 | 1.34 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2116 | 0.38 |
Persistence:
0.673
Half-life:
2 days
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