Gujarat Energy Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
41.60%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
42.46%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
42.56%
decreased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 15, 2015 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 232% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0291 | 2.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6183 | 10.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0674 | 4.63*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.1886 | 0.05 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6645 | 0.05 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0693 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.681
Half-life:
2 days
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