V-Lab
Gujarat Energy Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
32.26%
increased by 2.30%
1 Week
31.81%
increased by 1.85%
1 Month
30.45%
increased by 0.49%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 2015 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. The volatility power δ = 1.14 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0797 | 9.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1187 | 21.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8603 | 140.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0036 | -0.22 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1398 | 10.08*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
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