V-Lab
G-Devs SA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
132.14%
1 Week
135.98%
1 Month
142.75%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:14 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 2024 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 35% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.88 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 2.25** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2247 | 12.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6801 | 27.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1703 | -4.66*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8763 | 4.24*** |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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