V-Lab
SMG Swiss Marketplace Group AG Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
51.84%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
51.99%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
52.32%
increased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 23, 2025 to Aug 7, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. The volatility power δ = 0.50 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1935 | 3.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0056 | 0.52 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8905 | 30.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 58.00*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.5000 | 1.60 |
Persistence:
0.894
Half-life:
6 days
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