Datamatics Global Services Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
46.52%
decreased by 1.49%
1 Week
46.95%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Month
48.13%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 1.58 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3365 | 11.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1465 | 28.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8175 | 145.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0184 | -1.58 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5791 | 21.25*** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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