Datamatics Global Services GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
41.85%
decreased by 1.09%
1 Week
43.38%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
47.45%
increased by 4.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 07:12 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2004 to Oct 19, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 12-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6500 | 4.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.0806 | 4.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8538 | 34.82*** |
| γleverage | 0.0227 | 0.59 |
0.946
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6500 | 4.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0806 | 4.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8538 | 34.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0227 | 0.59 |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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