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Datamatics Global Services Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

39.79%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Week

41.43%

increased by 0.33%

1 Month

44.01%

increased by 2.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 07:13 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Datamatics Global Services S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 2004 to Oct 19, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9536
4.94***
αARCH0.1072
5.81***
βGARCH0.7404
16.78***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.1254
1.27
γ2-0.3366
-2.39**
γ30.4843
6.00***
γ4-0.4830
-6.91***
γ50.3061
4.30***
γ6-0.1203
-1.66*
γ70.0006
0.01
γ80.0457
1.00

0.848

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9536
4.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1072
5.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7404
16.78***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.1254
1.27
γ2-0.3366
-2.39**
γ30.4843
6.00***
γ4-0.4830
-6.91***
γ50.3061
4.30***
γ6-0.1203
-1.66*
γ70.0006
0.01
γ80.0457
1.00

Persistence:

0.848

Half-life:

4 days