Datamatics Global Services Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
41.64%
decreased by 1.40%
1 Week
43.55%
increased by 0.51%
1 Month
46.47%
increased by 3.43%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2004 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9564 | 4.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1082 | 5.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7338 | 16.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.1379 | 1.36 |
| γ2 | -0.3604 | -2.51** |
| γ3 | 0.5015 | 6.15*** |
| γ4 | -0.4839 | -6.76*** |
| γ5 | 0.2886 | 3.96*** |
| γ6 | -0.0970 | -1.32 |
| γ7 | -0.0097 | -0.15 |
| γ8 | 0.0408 | 0.81 |
Persistence:
0.842
Half-life:
4 days
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