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V-Lab

Datamatics Global Services APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

43.24%

decreased by 1.68%

1 Week

44.85%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

49.27%

increased by 4.35%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Datamatics Global Services APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 1, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 1.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4110
10.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1035
20.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8554
133.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0247
1.09
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5722
20.81***

Persistence:

0.946

Half-life:

12 days