Datamatics Global Services APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
43.24%
decreased by 1.68%
1 Week
44.85%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
49.27%
increased by 4.35%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 1, 2004 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 12 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 12 days. The volatility power δ = 1.57 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4110 | 10.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1035 | 20.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8554 | 133.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0247 | 1.09 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5722 | 20.81*** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
Other Datamatics Global Services Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on International Equities