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V-Lab

Universal Music Group N V APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

30.06%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

30.11%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

30.30%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Universal Music Group N V APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 27, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. The volatility power δ = 1.45 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0771
4.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0130
0.03
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9557
113.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

1.0000
0.02
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4502
8.99***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days