Universal Music Group N V APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
30.06%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
30.11%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
30.30%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 27, 2021 to Jul 17, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 23 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 23 days. The volatility power δ = 1.45 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0771 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0130 | 0.03 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9557 | 113.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 1.0000 | 0.02 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4502 | 8.99*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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