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V-Lab

Universal Music Group N V GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

28.30%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

28.38%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

28.63%

increased by 0.15%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Universal Music Group N V GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 27, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1643
4.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9358
102.79***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0313
4.91***

Persistence:

0.951

Half-life:

14 days