V-Lab
Universal Music Group N V GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
28.30%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
28.38%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
28.63%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 27, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1643 | 4.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9358 | 102.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0313 | 4.91*** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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