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V-Lab

Universal Music Group N V GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

42.37%

decreased by 2.29%

1 Week

39.90%

decreased by 4.76%

1 Month

35.60%

decreased by 9.06%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Universal Music Group N V GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6747
3.55***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0521
3.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7865
14.79***

Persistence:

0.839

Half-life:

4 days