V-Lab
Universal Music Group N V Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
57.27%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
57.63%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
57.70%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8359 | 3.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0203 | 0.65 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.7288 | 0.20 |
| γ2 | -5.1165 | -0.98 |
| γ3 | 7.9595 | 1.74* |
| γ4 | -6.5552 | -1.03 |
| γ5 | 8.1607 | 1.14 |
| γ6 | -10.5522 | -1.46 |
| γ7 | 9.0939 | 1.78* |
| γ8 | -7.0521 | -2.38** |
| γ9 | 8.9613 | 2.47** |
| γ10 | -9.3580 | -2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.020
Half-life:
0 days
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