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V-Lab

Universal Music Group N V Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

32.71%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

32.85%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

32.88%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Universal Music Group N V S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 27, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7949
4.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0235
0.70
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-2.3533
-1.67*
γ22.4552
1.16
γ31.0013
0.55
γ4-2.2214
-0.96
γ52.1063
1.01
γ6-1.4642
-1.26

Persistence:

0.023

Half-life:

0 days