Skip to main content
V-Lab

Universal Music Group N V Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

57.99%

increased by 0.19%

1 Week

58.31%

increased by 0.51%

1 Month

58.37%

increased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Universal Music Group N V S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8356
3.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0201
0.64
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.8564
0.23
γ2-5.2829
-0.99
γ37.9418
1.65*
γ4-6.4951
-0.98
γ58.2395
1.13
γ6-10.6899
-1.51
γ79.2130
1.99**
γ8-7.3547
-2.57**
γ99.5111
2.49**
γ10-9.6470
-2.71***

Persistence:

0.020

Half-life:

0 days