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V-Lab

Universal Music Group N V Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

57.27%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Week

57.63%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

57.70%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Universal Music Group N V S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8359
3.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0203
0.65
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.7288
0.20
γ2-5.1165
-0.98
γ37.9595
1.74*
γ4-6.5552
-1.03
γ58.1607
1.14
γ6-10.5522
-1.46
γ79.0939
1.78*
γ8-7.0521
-2.38**
γ98.9613
2.47**
γ10-9.3580
-2.71***

Persistence:

0.020

Half-life:

0 days