V-Lab
Universal Music Group N V Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
74.01%
increased by 0.16%
1 Week
74.53%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
74.63%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8209 | 6.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0216 | 0.65 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -1.3129 | -2.59*** |
| γ2 | 2.2237 | 2.48** |
| γ3 | -1.6412 | -1.83* |
| γ4 | 2.6042 | 2.11** |
Persistence:
0.022
Half-life:
0 days
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