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V-Lab

Universal Music Group N V Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

74.01%

increased by 0.16%

1 Week

74.53%

increased by 0.68%

1 Month

74.63%

increased by 0.78%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Universal Music Group N V SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8209
6.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0216
0.65
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ1-1.3129
-2.59***
γ22.2237
2.48**
γ3-1.6412
-1.83*
γ42.6042
2.11**

Persistence:

0.022

Half-life:

0 days