V-Lab
Universal Music Group N V AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
34.40%
decreased by 1.18%
1 Week
33.80%
decreased by 1.78%
1 Month
33.12%
decreased by 2.46%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.39) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8557 | 10.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0918 | 6.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6662 | 32.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.3894 | -6.74*** |
Persistence:
0.758
Half-life:
3 days
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