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V-Lab

Universal Music Group N V AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

34.40%

decreased by 1.18%

1 Week

33.80%

decreased by 1.78%

1 Month

33.12%

decreased by 2.46%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Universal Music Group N V AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -1.39) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8557
10.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0918
6.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6662
32.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-1.3894
-6.74***

Persistence:

0.758

Half-life:

3 days