V-Lab
Universal Music Group N V EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
34.75%
increased by 2.14%
1 Week
34.60%
increased by 1.99%
1 Month
34.38%
increased by 1.77%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 250% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2698 | 6.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1413 | 4.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8246 | 25.11*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0785 | 3.60*** |
Persistence:
0.825
Half-life:
4 days
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