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V-Lab

Universal Music Group N V EGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

34.75%

increased by 2.14%

1 Week

34.60%

increased by 1.99%

1 Month

34.38%

increased by 1.77%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Universal Music Group N V EGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 250% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

EGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2698
6.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1413
4.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8246
25.11***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0785
3.60***

Persistence:

0.825

Half-life:

4 days