V-Lab
Universal Music Group N V MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
41.27%
increased by 4.53%
1 Week
43.09%
increased by 6.35%
1 Month
37.68%
increased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0453 | 3.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 8.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.4327 | 0.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0823 | 0.29 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3714 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.295
Half-life:
1 days
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