V-Lab
Universal Music Group N V MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
38.16%
increased by 0.62%
1 Week
44.08%
increased by 6.54%
1 Month
41.75%
increased by 4.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0484 | 3.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 8.14*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.3817 | 0.19 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0915 | 0.32 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3832 | 0.13 |
Persistence:
0.298
Half-life:
1 days
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