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V-Lab

Universal Music Group N V MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

38.16%

increased by 0.62%

1 Week

44.08%

increased by 6.54%

1 Month

41.75%

increased by 4.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 06:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Universal Music Group N V MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 27, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0484
3.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5000
8.14***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.3817
0.19
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0915
0.32
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.3832
0.13

Persistence:

0.298

Half-life:

1 days