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V-Lab

Luyuan Group Holding Cayman MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

58.90%

decreased by 5.07%

1 Week

61.47%

decreased by 2.50%

1 Month

64.99%

increased by 1.02%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Luyuan Group Holding Cayman MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2023 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 320% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2194
17.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5757
14.86***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1671
-7.97***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.2610
0.11
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7783
0.10
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.712

Half-life:

2 days