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V-Lab

Luyuan Group Holding Cayman MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

60.79%

decreased by 1.80%

1 Week

63.81%

increased by 1.22%

1 Month

66.41%

increased by 3.82%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Luyuan Group Holding Cayman MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2054
16.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5720
13.63***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1660
-8.27***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.9746
0.10
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8206
0.09
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.694

Half-life:

2 days