V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
58.90%
1 Week
61.47%
1 Month
64.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 06:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 320% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2194 | 17.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5757 | 14.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1671 | -7.97*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.2610 | 0.11 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.7783 | 0.10 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.712
Half-life:
2 days
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