V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
36.71%
decreased by 2.40%
1 Week
38.82%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
43.54%
increased by 4.43%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7700 | 2.05** |
| αARCH | 0.1673 | 3.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7527 | 10.19*** |
0.920
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7700 | 2.05** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1673 | 3.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7527 | 10.19*** |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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