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Luyuan Group Holding Cayman APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

37.53%

decreased by 2.89%

1 Week

39.65%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Month

44.67%

increased by 4.25%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Luyuan Group Holding Cayman APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. The volatility power δ = 1.56 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifeδ = 1.56 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4783
1.29
αARCH0.1688
3.70***
βGARCH0.7757
11.53***
γleverage0.0499
0.29
δpower1.5617
2.35**

0.923

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4783
1.29
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1688
3.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7757
11.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0499
0.29
δ

power

Transformation power

1.5617
2.35**

Persistence:

0.923

Half-life:

9 days