V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
37.53%
1 Week
39.65%
1 Month
44.67%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. The volatility power δ = 1.56 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.4783 | 1.29 |
| αARCH | 0.1688 | 3.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7757 | 11.53*** |
| γleverage | 0.0499 | 0.29 |
| δpower | 1.5617 | 2.35** |
0.923
Persistence9d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4783 | 1.29 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1688 | 3.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7757 | 11.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0499 | 0.29 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.5617 | 2.35** |
Persistence:
0.923
Half-life:
9 days
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