Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Luyuan Group Holding Cayman Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

55.24%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

55.27%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Month

55.40%

decreased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Luyuan Group Holding Cayman AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0070
1.31
αARCH0.0563
2.11**
βGARCH0.9382
30.19***
γleverage0.0108
0.23

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0070
1.31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0563
2.11**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9382
30.19***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0108
0.23

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days