V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
55.24%
1 Week
55.27%
1 Month
55.40%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
AMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0070 | 1.31 |
| αARCH | 0.0563 | 2.11** |
| βGARCH | 0.9382 | 30.19*** |
| γleverage | 0.0108 | 0.23 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeAMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0070 | 1.31 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0563 | 2.11** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9382 | 30.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0108 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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