V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
122.81%
increased by 9.05%
1 Week
115.72%
increased by 1.96%
1 Month
95.73%
decreased by 18.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9072 | 2.02** |
| αARCH | 0.2322 | 1.94* |
| βGARCH | 0.7082 | 7.64*** |
| γleverage | -0.0320 | -0.20 |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9072 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2322 | 1.94* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7082 | 7.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0320 | -0.20 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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