V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
36.69%
decreased by 2.38%
1 Week
38.79%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
43.61%
increased by 4.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7467 | 2.07** |
| αARCH | 0.1501 | 1.95* |
| βGARCH | 0.7571 | 10.71*** |
| γleverage | 0.0334 | 0.24 |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7467 | 2.07** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1501 | 1.95* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7571 | 10.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0334 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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