V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
56.33%
decreased by 2.46%
1 Week
61.47%
increased by 2.68%
1 Month
67.24%
increased by 8.45%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0336 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1739 | 3.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6069 | 5.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 9.3189 | 3.19*** |
| γ2 | -16.5739 | -3.62*** |
| γ3 | 11.2695 | 2.91*** |
| γ4 | -3.6357 | -1.01 |
| γ5 | -1.7309 | -0.65 |
Persistence:
0.781
Half-life:
3 days
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