V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
111.10%
increased by 5.84%
1 Week
99.49%
decreased by 5.77%
1 Month
83.10%
decreased by 22.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9683 | 3.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.1870 | 3.14*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5936 | 4.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 8.2863 | 3.11*** |
| γ2 | -15.1541 | -3.70*** |
| γ3 | 11.0182 | 3.20*** |
| γ4 | -4.1022 | -1.34 |
| γ5 | -1.2678 | -0.56 |
0.781
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9683 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1870 | 3.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5936 | 4.89*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 8.2863 | 3.11*** |
| γ2 | -15.1541 | -3.70*** |
| γ3 | 11.0182 | 3.20*** |
| γ4 | -4.1022 | -1.34 |
| γ5 | -1.2678 | -0.56 |
Persistence:
0.781
Half-life:
3 days
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