V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
53.50%
decreased by 1.36%
1 Week
59.21%
increased by 4.35%
1 Month
65.73%
increased by 10.87%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0254 | 3.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.1716 | 3.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6167 | 5.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 8.8972 | 3.18*** |
| γ2 | -15.9908 | -3.69*** |
| γ3 | 11.2820 | 3.11*** |
| γ4 | -4.2352 | -1.28 |
| γ5 | -1.0614 | -0.44 |
0.788
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0254 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1716 | 3.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6167 | 5.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 8.8972 | 3.18*** |
| γ2 | -15.9908 | -3.69*** |
| γ3 | 11.2820 | 3.11*** |
| γ4 | -4.2352 | -1.28 |
| γ5 | -1.0614 | -0.44 |
Persistence:
0.788
Half-life:
3 days
Other Luyuan Group Holding Cayman Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities