V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
65.34%
decreased by 7.32%
1 Week
66.99%
decreased by 5.67%
1 Month
68.98%
decreased by 3.68%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0722 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1798 | 3.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6036 | 5.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 10.2588 | 3.11*** |
| γ2 | -17.8663 | -3.37*** |
| γ3 | 11.3850 | 2.49** |
| γ4 | -2.8958 | -0.67 |
| γ5 | -2.4751 | -0.78 |
Persistence:
0.783
Half-life:
3 days
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