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V-Lab

Luyuan Group Holding Cayman Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

65.34%

decreased by 7.32%

1 Week

66.99%

decreased by 5.67%

1 Month

68.98%

decreased by 3.68%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Luyuan Group Holding Cayman S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0722
3.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1798
3.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6036
5.25***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ110.2588
3.11***
γ2-17.8663
-3.37***
γ311.3850
2.49**
γ4-2.8958
-0.67
γ5-2.4751
-0.78

Persistence:

0.783

Half-life:

3 days