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V-Lab

Luyuan Group Holding Cayman GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

57.63%

decreased by 13.88%

1 Week

58.24%

decreased by 13.27%

1 Month

59.55%

decreased by 11.96%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Luyuan Group Holding Cayman GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2023 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

14.7267
2.50**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1742
8.94***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8997
22.63***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.5841
12.33***

Persistence:

0.900

Half-life:

7 days