V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
131.15%
increased by 29.07%
1 Week
122.02%
increased by 19.94%
1 Month
98.42%
decreased by 3.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 2.71 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 14.8335 | 0.67 |
| αARCH | 0.1824 | 2.44** |
| βGARCH | 0.9057 | 6.45*** |
| νDF | 2.7081 | 2.92*** |
0.906
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.8335 | 0.67 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1824 | 2.44** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9057 | 6.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7081 | 2.92*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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