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Luyuan Group Holding Cayman GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

131.15%

increased by 29.07%

1 Week

122.02%

increased by 19.94%

1 Month

98.42%

decreased by 3.66%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 09:09 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Luyuan Group Holding Cayman GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 2.71 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst14.8335
0.67
αARCH0.1824
2.44**
βGARCH0.9057
6.45***
νDF2.7081
2.92***

0.906

Persistence

7d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

14.8335
0.67
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1824
2.44**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9057
6.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7081
2.92***

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days