V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
50.78%
decreased by 13.34%
1 Week
52.41%
decreased by 11.71%
1 Month
55.89%
decreased by 8.23%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.0881 | 2.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1724 | 9.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9047 | 25.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6653 | 11.51*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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