V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
40.59%
decreased by 8.08%
1 Week
44.11%
decreased by 4.56%
1 Month
51.20%
increased by 2.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.71 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 7-day half-lifev = 2.71 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 13.5107 | 0.67 |
| αARCH | 0.1689 | 2.35** |
| βGARCH | 0.9069 | 6.57*** |
| νDF | 2.7116 | 2.73*** |
0.907
Persistence7d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 13.5107 | 0.67 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1689 | 2.35** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9069 | 6.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7116 | 2.73*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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