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V-Lab

Luyuan Group Holding Cayman GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

50.78%

decreased by 13.34%

1 Week

52.41%

decreased by 11.71%

1 Month

55.89%

decreased by 8.23%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Luyuan Group Holding Cayman GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

14.0881
2.63***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1724
9.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9047
25.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6653
11.51***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days