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V-Lab
V-Lab

Luyuan Group Holding Cayman Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

54.17%

decreased by 1.35%

1 Week

60.00%

increased by 4.48%

1 Month

66.60%

increased by 11.08%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Luyuan Group Holding Cayman SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0265
3.33***
αARCH0.1720
3.09***
βGARCH0.6149
5.24***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ18.9329
3.19***
γ2-16.0659
-3.71***
γ311.3812
3.05***
γ4-4.4078
-1.15
γ5-0.6346
-0.13

0.787

Persistence

3d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0265
3.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1720
3.09***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6149
5.24***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ18.9329
3.19***
γ2-16.0659
-3.71***
γ311.3812
3.05***
γ4-4.4078
-1.15
γ5-0.6346
-0.13

Persistence:

0.787

Half-life:

3 days