V-Lab
Luyuan Group Holding Cayman Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
54.17%
decreased by 1.35%
1 Week
60.00%
increased by 4.48%
1 Month
66.60%
increased by 11.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 11, 2023 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0265 | 3.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.1720 | 3.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6149 | 5.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 8.9329 | 3.19*** |
| γ2 | -16.0659 | -3.71*** |
| γ3 | 11.3812 | 3.05*** |
| γ4 | -4.4078 | -1.15 |
| γ5 | -0.6346 | -0.13 |
0.787
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0265 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1720 | 3.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6149 | 5.24*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 8.9329 | 3.19*** |
| γ2 | -16.0659 | -3.71*** |
| γ3 | 11.3812 | 3.05*** |
| γ4 | -4.4078 | -1.15 |
| γ5 | -0.6346 | -0.13 |
Persistence:
0.787
Half-life:
3 days
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