V-Lab
HeidelbergCement AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
35.15%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
36.82%
increased by 1.20%
1 Month
41.67%
increased by 6.05%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4722 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0901 | 9.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8731 | 68.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0186 | 0.46 |
| γ2 | 0.0341 | 0.63 |
| γ3 | -0.1295 | -4.66*** |
| γ4 | 0.1523 | 5.24*** |
| γ5 | -0.1452 | -4.57*** |
| γ6 | 0.1149 | 3.75*** |
| γ7 | -0.0663 | -2.12** |
| γ8 | 0.0848 | 1.68* |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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