V-Lab
Volkswagen AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
29.32%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Week
29.85%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
31.38%
increased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 15 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0555 | 6.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0937 | 8.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8602 | 64.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0563 | -1.00 |
| γ2 | 0.1677 | 1.87* |
| γ3 | -0.2178 | -3.73*** |
| γ4 | 0.1390 | 2.75*** |
| γ5 | 0.0217 | 0.43 |
| γ6 | -0.1531 | -3.26*** |
| γ7 | 0.1615 | 3.63*** |
| γ8 | -0.0543 | -1.30 |
| γ9 | -0.0480 | -0.92 |
| γ10 | 0.0835 | 1.10 |
Persistence:
0.954
Half-life:
15 days
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