V-Lab
RWE AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
28.40%
increased by 0.68%
1 Week
28.61%
increased by 0.89%
1 Month
29.24%
increased by 1.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2533 | 4.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0773 | 8.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8806 | 68.62*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0841 | 5.81*** |
| γ2 | -0.1317 | -6.51*** |
| γ3 | 0.0708 | 5.05*** |
| γ4 | -0.0214 | -1.60 |
| γ5 | -0.0216 | -1.35 |
| γ6 | 0.0422 | 1.75* |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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