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V-Lab
V-Lab

K+S AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

31.34%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

32.59%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

35.68%

increased by 3.59%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/07/2024

to

10/07/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of K+S AG SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2919
7.49***
αARCH0.0845
7.38***
βGARCH0.8495
51.20***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0370
0.63
γ2-0.0073
-0.08
γ3-0.1212
-1.87*
γ40.2245
3.98***
γ5-0.2261
-4.48***
γ60.1385
2.88***
γ7-0.0927
-1.29
γ80.1288
1.71*
γ9-0.1901
-3.06***
γ100.2160
3.00***

0.934

Persistence

10d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2919
7.49***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0845
7.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8495
51.20***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ10.0370
0.63
γ2-0.0073
-0.08
γ3-0.1212
-1.87*
γ40.2245
3.98***
γ5-0.2261
-4.48***
γ60.1385
2.88***
γ7-0.0927
-1.29
γ80.1288
1.71*
γ9-0.1901
-3.06***
γ100.2160
3.00***

Persistence:

0.934

Half-life:

10 days