V-Lab
Continental AG Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
38.86%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
40.32%
increased by 0.66%
1 Month
44.55%
increased by 4.89%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:14 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1779 | 6.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0779 | 8.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8832 | 64.04*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0383 | 1.48 |
| γ2 | -0.0279 | -0.72 |
| γ3 | -0.0471 | -1.76* |
| γ4 | 0.1013 | 4.30*** |
| γ5 | -0.1536 | -6.56*** |
| γ6 | 0.1690 | 5.65*** |
| γ7 | -0.1176 | -2.90*** |
| γ8 | 0.0731 | 1.25 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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